Reprinted with permission from

March 14, 1997

Economist: Emerald Coast to grow for next 15 years

By JOHN KEEGAN

Daily News Staff Writer

SEASIDE - The Emerald Coast will continue to develop at a healthy pace for at least another 15 years, nationally known economist Henry Fishkind predicts.

Fishkind spoke to more than 50 people Wednesday about the bright future he sees for the Emerald Coast during a presentation at the Seaside Meeting Hall.

Fishkind is regarded as one of Florida's premier economists and financial advisers. He has more than 20 years experience in economic analysis and forecasting and is the president of Fishkind & Associates Inc., a consulting firm in Orlando.

Fishkind said there are several market conditions positioning the Emerald Coast for busy times well into the next decade.

These conditions include:

• A relatively short drive from the Panama City-Bay County International Airport to South Walton and Destin.
• Oil and gas companies are preparing for expected drilling in the gulf.
• Military bases in the area were spared from closing and continue to grow.

In the middle of these healthy market conditions is Walton County.

Walton County's beaches have achieved the national name recognition necessary for "a place to become a place", he said.

"Grayton Beach was named the most beautiful beach in the country," he said. "People in Wyoming will say 'I don't know what it is, but I want to see it.'"

Fishkind predicts development in Walton County and most of the Emerald Coast will escalate during the next five years and shouldn't reach a saturation point for another 15 years.

Walton County has about 400 new single family home starts each year and that figure should double to about 800 in five years, he said.

To keep South Walton's scenic beauty intact, strict land use commitments must be made by the county. This is a commitment Fishkind says he does not see from the County Commission.

"How do we use paradise without consuming it?" he said. "It's a choice. Do we want Palm Beach and Sarasota or Panama City?"

As far as traditional neighborhoods, such as Seaside and the fledgling Rosemary Beach project, they will thrive in the right niche, Fishkind said.

A traditional neighborhood - a community where all the amenities are within walking distance - won't succeed on a scale of a more than 1,000 acres because it's difficult to find a developer able to build it at a reasonable price, he said.

Rosemary Beach Land Company President Patrick Bienvenue said Fishkind's projections are on target.

"All our other independent studies confirm what he said," he said. "We consider (Walton County) a strong growth area for the next decade. On a subjective level, our projections were doubled with our sales achievements last year. We are very confident."